Price is the matching between supply and demand.
Value is the fair price of the item.
Most of the time, price and value do not match.
When economy is good, price always shoot higher than value.
When economy is bad, price always drop below value.
When we buy, we see price.
But when we want to get cheap items, go for value buy.
Friday, December 26, 2008
CNBC .com
As a new year approaches, it is customary for journalists to make predictions about the future. This time around, CNBC.com has a collection of prognostications from CNBC bloggers on a special page: Predictions '09.
Last year around this time, Warren Buffett Watch offered its Eight Predictions for '08 .. and Beyond.
In keeping with Buffett's long-term way of looking at things, the eight predictions were intentionally on the 'timeless' side of the predicting spectrum.
Here they are again, with a little bit of editing. This could be the start of a new holiday tradition!
-----------------
Warren Buffett became one of the wealthiest people in the world by making predictions and putting money behind those predictions. Every time he buys a stock or a business or some other investment, he's forecasting the future.
Judging by the incredible returns of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his colleagues are very good at making those predictions.
Of course, it helps when you can give your predictions plenty of time to come true. That's one reason Buffett's favorite holding period for investments in "outstanding businesses with outstanding managements" is "forever." After all, "We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely."
With that in mind, here are Warren Buffett Watch's 'timeless' predictions.
1. Recessions can't be avoided forever. As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)
AP
The economic downturn takes its toll at the almost-empty Bayshore Town Center Mall in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. We'll survive current and future recessions just as we've survived past problems. As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008): "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."
3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap." Fast-forward to October, 2008, and Buffett's Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now.
4. All stocks won't be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don’t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"
5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else."
6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad. "If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."
Walt Disney (1950)
Cinderella rushes for the exit as midnight approaches
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history."
Last year around this time, Warren Buffett Watch offered its Eight Predictions for '08 .. and Beyond.
In keeping with Buffett's long-term way of looking at things, the eight predictions were intentionally on the 'timeless' side of the predicting spectrum.
Here they are again, with a little bit of editing. This could be the start of a new holiday tradition!
-----------------
Warren Buffett became one of the wealthiest people in the world by making predictions and putting money behind those predictions. Every time he buys a stock or a business or some other investment, he's forecasting the future.
Judging by the incredible returns of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his colleagues are very good at making those predictions.
Of course, it helps when you can give your predictions plenty of time to come true. That's one reason Buffett's favorite holding period for investments in "outstanding businesses with outstanding managements" is "forever." After all, "We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely."
With that in mind, here are Warren Buffett Watch's 'timeless' predictions.
1. Recessions can't be avoided forever. As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)
AP
The economic downturn takes its toll at the almost-empty Bayshore Town Center Mall in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. We'll survive current and future recessions just as we've survived past problems. As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008): "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."
3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap." Fast-forward to October, 2008, and Buffett's Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now.
4. All stocks won't be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don’t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"
5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else."
6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad. "If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."
Walt Disney (1950)
Cinderella rushes for the exit as midnight approaches
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history."
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/
Overview – This strategy piece will probably be regarded as the more optimistic one you will ever come across in these turbulent times. I am quietly (or not so quietly) optimistic for 2009 and beyond for global stock markets. I believe we have seen the groundwork laid for possibly the mother of all bull markets over the next 3 years. It should be a gradual stop-start thing. It will be one which is loaded with inflationary pressures as well.
Expectations – The trouble with many investors is that we are always only able to perceive and view things within a certain perimeter. Back in January 2008, there were still many who viewed the global economy with a sense of bullishness, and that the real issue was higher commodity prices. We tend to feel and sense things happening around us at that point in time. Now we are surrounded by layoffs, that the many injections of liquidity are unstoppable, that the many rate cuts are insufficient, that the mother of all fiscal measures may not be adequate, that lending and risk aversion are still kings of the world – it is natural then to assume that we have a long way to go. As we sit in the middle of this crisis, it is also natural to hear experts proclaim that this is the deepest recessions the world has seen since the Depression. It is logical to conclude that we are in for the long haul. We let things around us shape the bulk of our investing decisions, when we should base our investing decisions on what things will be like 6-12 months down the road. Just like back in January 2008, we should base our investing decisions on things happening 6-12 months down the road, and not how things were like at that point in time.
The Recession – As announced a few weeks back, the recession started in November 2007, and as we stand now, its 14 months deep in recession. Prior to World War II recessions were more prolonged and deep usually 18-22 months. Mostly it’s that the tolls available to governments and central banks to deal with recessions and their effects were very limited then. The understanding of monetary and fiscal stimulus were in its infancy then. Post WW II till today, the longest recessions by ranking were:
November 1973 – March 1975: 16 months
July 1981 – November 1982: 16 months
December 1969 – November 1970: 11 months
April 1960 – February 1961: 10 months
The average being 11 months, and this present recession is already past the average at 14 months. Of course we cannot be satisfied just knowing it is already past the median. We cannot just imply that things are towards the end just based on averages, we are not in a baseball game.
Its Different this Time – This idea that things are different this time around will cost you your life savings. The more things evolve, the more things stay the same. This recessions’ fundamentals deterioration may be more widespread, but so are the measures doled out to rectify the patient. Its not really different, it just seems that way when you are in the midst of it. Business cycles are called cycles for many reasons. Things will peak and they will drop, they will boom and they will bust, each boom and bust will have their own stories to tell, but the cycle remains the same. The gravity of this crisis is matched by the unprecedented cooperation by all nations to work as one to rectify the problem. The amount of additional fiscal stimulus and the coordinated rate cuts are unprecedented. On November 9, China announced a $586B domestic stimulus package, more than triple the size of America's 2008 package. Australia announced a $10.4B package and Japan a $51B. Lump in the recent moves by EU, and the likelihood of a major one by Obama when he takes office, and you have a sense of its magnitude.
Confidence – The risk aversion mentality has taken strong roots, thus delaying the effects of the many measures being instituted. In fact, it is likely that we have already over-injected the required sums to revive many problem areas. It’s the confidence in the system that is wreaking havoc still. Confidence and risk aversion can also become a bubble condition – just look at the rush into yen and the rush into USD and US Treasuries. If those are not at bubble levels, I don’t know what it. Just like a pendulum, things will always sway to extremes before righting itself. I am not saying that the credit situation is over. I still think there are pockets of danger in credit cards.
Why Mother of All Bull Markets – We are seeing a readiness to go to zero interest rates in most major economies’ monetary policies. In a normal market situation, the rapid rate cuts will be balanced with a re-rating of stocks and yields, but they have not had that effect because the risk aversion mentality still rules. But that is OK, it just delays the “bull” not that the bull is not around. The bull will always surface when the right factors congregate.
The global economy has grown by nearly 70% in size from 2007 till mid 2008 before things imploded. Things imploded because of derivatives and capital issues. Yes those liquidity or multiplied liquidity was drained from the system, but it would be silly to think that they were responsible for the bulk of the 70% growth in global trade. What we have seen over the last 8 years was a huge rise in global middle class, in particular from the BRIC nations. This huge new middle class will still be consuming more resources as more emerging economies continue to pour resources to build up infrastructure. That is the inevitable “good” that comes from globalization. The demand on our resources was highlighted over the last 3 years when commodity prices went through the roof. Their price rises may have been exaggerated by the remarkable liquidity from hedge funds and specialized funds – but the underlying principle still remains. The implosion in commodity prices over the last 6 months was more due to the retraction of liquidity, rather than a rapid deterioration in demand fundamentals.
The secular bull in commodities was caused by perceptions of massive demand in emerging markets, particularly the BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - which were growing at unprecedented rates. As they became increasingly wealthy and industrialized, these economies represented growing new demand for energy, food and production inputs. The commodity price collapse since the summer of 2008 does not indicate inflation is out of the question - it indicates global economies are contracting deeply. The amount of new fiscal measures by the said nations will go some way to addressing the contraction slide. Mind you, all this while, we still have this new huge middle class in the global economy.
Inflation – Following on the above premise, it is safe to say that inflation will rise when confidence returns. Central banks will then have to drain liquidity from the system gradually. As the risk aversion was so strong, it is likely that most central banks will allow the markets to rise, and even allow inflation to seep in for the first 12 months. You do not want to ruin the hard work by tightening the noose so soon. Hence the first 12 months will be most vibrant and exciting.
Darkest Before Dawn - Investors were bailing out of mutual funds at record pace, the VIX set new highs, more than 90% of closed-end funds were trading at a discount that were much higher than the average. All these are signs of bottoming. As I have written before, it should be very useful to look for bottoms by looking at the yen/usd rate. You need risk aversion to reduce before investors are willing to get back into stocks.
Cheap valuations are a reflection of risk aversion, the rush to US Treasuries is a sure sign of risk aversion, the rush to USD and yen are a sign of definite risk aversion.
Gem #1: Markets will only start a genuine recovery when risk aversion subsides
Gem#2: Risk aversion reduction will be immediately reflected in weaker USD and yen
The fall in USD over the last two days is more due to the zero interest rate regime enacted by Federal Reserve, so that should not be a sign of risk aversion reduction.
The best guide for locating current markets' bottom: WHEN USD and YEN BOTH STARTS TO FALL IN VALUE in a sustained pattern. When these two currencies fall, it show a willingness to move exposure into other currencies or assets, be it stock or bonds. Before they are reflected in the prices, the signal will be most apparent in the currencies.
However, even then we cannot really ascertain a buying trigger. So, my advice would be to break up you investing funds into 3 portions, get ready your list of stocks to buy.
Catalyst #1: When yen/usd rate moves back to 94, plonk down 1/3 of your funds
Catalyst #2: When the rate moves to 97, move the second portion
Catalyst #3: When the rate breaks 100, move the rest in
A point not missed here is that if yen weakens against the USD, the latter would be gaining in strength. However, I am using the yen/usd rate as a guide, as I believe when the yen starts to weaken, the USD would also weaken, but not by as much - i.e. the USD would gain ground against yen but at the same time lose ground against the euros and other major currencies. I use the yen/usd rate because that is most widely followed. The yen is used as the determinant because it was the most popular currency for carry trades, the unbelievable strength now is due to risk aversion as the Japanese exporters are basically losing money and cannot compete below 90.
Comforting Data – Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 tends to bottom:
One quarter before the GDP bottoms; 3 months before the ISM manufacturing survey bottoms; 7 months before the peak unemployment rate; 4 months before the largest decline in non-farm payrolls; and 4 months before the bottom in consumer confidence surveys.
Using that as benchmarks, we should expect a genuine economic recovery somewhere between March and June of 2009.
The Obama Factor – Just like investing, to move share prices you need catalysts to make things happen. Risk aversion does not just go away, they also need to have catalysts. Obama will take office in January 2009. Call it goodwill, call it anything you want. He has already assembled a group of very credible people to help him. He has shown a clarity and purpose in hiring the best, rather than just from his own circles. The key would be the stimulus package he will be announcing. What started off as a $350bn package has now ballooned to $600bn, and now its likely to top $1 trillion.
Its not just a hopeful thing. As mentioned, the groundwork has been laid: very low interest rates, very high risk aversion, stocks at very cheap levels, governments pumping fiscal stimulus like crazy… its like everyone is working towards an Obama effect.
Confidence is a strange yet important part of global finance. A basic re-rating of 10% jump from current levels will improve valuations for a lot of toxic assets as well and in turn relives the constant need to raise capital. Further jumps in markets will see a willingness to buy even toxic assets. Things that look like being worth just 20 cents to the dollar may now be worth 50 cents to the dollar. It’s a cumulative snowball effect. Injured banks may even be able to use the capital raise to actually repair balance sheet and do actual lending, instead of constantly having to write down every quarter. You would be amazed what 10%-20% jump in equity prices can do to the entire system.
I am looking for the Dow to reach 10,000 by February / March 2009 and to go back to 12,000 by June 2009. I cannot safely say what will happen for the second half of 2009. A lot will depend on what the central banks and governments do over the next 6 months. If they play their cards right, I think global equity markets could fully recover by end 2009 and go on a 2-3 year unprecedented bull run.
Expectations – The trouble with many investors is that we are always only able to perceive and view things within a certain perimeter. Back in January 2008, there were still many who viewed the global economy with a sense of bullishness, and that the real issue was higher commodity prices. We tend to feel and sense things happening around us at that point in time. Now we are surrounded by layoffs, that the many injections of liquidity are unstoppable, that the many rate cuts are insufficient, that the mother of all fiscal measures may not be adequate, that lending and risk aversion are still kings of the world – it is natural then to assume that we have a long way to go. As we sit in the middle of this crisis, it is also natural to hear experts proclaim that this is the deepest recessions the world has seen since the Depression. It is logical to conclude that we are in for the long haul. We let things around us shape the bulk of our investing decisions, when we should base our investing decisions on what things will be like 6-12 months down the road. Just like back in January 2008, we should base our investing decisions on things happening 6-12 months down the road, and not how things were like at that point in time.
The Recession – As announced a few weeks back, the recession started in November 2007, and as we stand now, its 14 months deep in recession. Prior to World War II recessions were more prolonged and deep usually 18-22 months. Mostly it’s that the tolls available to governments and central banks to deal with recessions and their effects were very limited then. The understanding of monetary and fiscal stimulus were in its infancy then. Post WW II till today, the longest recessions by ranking were:
November 1973 – March 1975: 16 months
July 1981 – November 1982: 16 months
December 1969 – November 1970: 11 months
April 1960 – February 1961: 10 months
The average being 11 months, and this present recession is already past the average at 14 months. Of course we cannot be satisfied just knowing it is already past the median. We cannot just imply that things are towards the end just based on averages, we are not in a baseball game.
Its Different this Time – This idea that things are different this time around will cost you your life savings. The more things evolve, the more things stay the same. This recessions’ fundamentals deterioration may be more widespread, but so are the measures doled out to rectify the patient. Its not really different, it just seems that way when you are in the midst of it. Business cycles are called cycles for many reasons. Things will peak and they will drop, they will boom and they will bust, each boom and bust will have their own stories to tell, but the cycle remains the same. The gravity of this crisis is matched by the unprecedented cooperation by all nations to work as one to rectify the problem. The amount of additional fiscal stimulus and the coordinated rate cuts are unprecedented. On November 9, China announced a $586B domestic stimulus package, more than triple the size of America's 2008 package. Australia announced a $10.4B package and Japan a $51B. Lump in the recent moves by EU, and the likelihood of a major one by Obama when he takes office, and you have a sense of its magnitude.
Confidence – The risk aversion mentality has taken strong roots, thus delaying the effects of the many measures being instituted. In fact, it is likely that we have already over-injected the required sums to revive many problem areas. It’s the confidence in the system that is wreaking havoc still. Confidence and risk aversion can also become a bubble condition – just look at the rush into yen and the rush into USD and US Treasuries. If those are not at bubble levels, I don’t know what it. Just like a pendulum, things will always sway to extremes before righting itself. I am not saying that the credit situation is over. I still think there are pockets of danger in credit cards.
Why Mother of All Bull Markets – We are seeing a readiness to go to zero interest rates in most major economies’ monetary policies. In a normal market situation, the rapid rate cuts will be balanced with a re-rating of stocks and yields, but they have not had that effect because the risk aversion mentality still rules. But that is OK, it just delays the “bull” not that the bull is not around. The bull will always surface when the right factors congregate.
The global economy has grown by nearly 70% in size from 2007 till mid 2008 before things imploded. Things imploded because of derivatives and capital issues. Yes those liquidity or multiplied liquidity was drained from the system, but it would be silly to think that they were responsible for the bulk of the 70% growth in global trade. What we have seen over the last 8 years was a huge rise in global middle class, in particular from the BRIC nations. This huge new middle class will still be consuming more resources as more emerging economies continue to pour resources to build up infrastructure. That is the inevitable “good” that comes from globalization. The demand on our resources was highlighted over the last 3 years when commodity prices went through the roof. Their price rises may have been exaggerated by the remarkable liquidity from hedge funds and specialized funds – but the underlying principle still remains. The implosion in commodity prices over the last 6 months was more due to the retraction of liquidity, rather than a rapid deterioration in demand fundamentals.
The secular bull in commodities was caused by perceptions of massive demand in emerging markets, particularly the BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - which were growing at unprecedented rates. As they became increasingly wealthy and industrialized, these economies represented growing new demand for energy, food and production inputs. The commodity price collapse since the summer of 2008 does not indicate inflation is out of the question - it indicates global economies are contracting deeply. The amount of new fiscal measures by the said nations will go some way to addressing the contraction slide. Mind you, all this while, we still have this new huge middle class in the global economy.
Inflation – Following on the above premise, it is safe to say that inflation will rise when confidence returns. Central banks will then have to drain liquidity from the system gradually. As the risk aversion was so strong, it is likely that most central banks will allow the markets to rise, and even allow inflation to seep in for the first 12 months. You do not want to ruin the hard work by tightening the noose so soon. Hence the first 12 months will be most vibrant and exciting.
Darkest Before Dawn - Investors were bailing out of mutual funds at record pace, the VIX set new highs, more than 90% of closed-end funds were trading at a discount that were much higher than the average. All these are signs of bottoming. As I have written before, it should be very useful to look for bottoms by looking at the yen/usd rate. You need risk aversion to reduce before investors are willing to get back into stocks.
Cheap valuations are a reflection of risk aversion, the rush to US Treasuries is a sure sign of risk aversion, the rush to USD and yen are a sign of definite risk aversion.
Gem #1: Markets will only start a genuine recovery when risk aversion subsides
Gem#2: Risk aversion reduction will be immediately reflected in weaker USD and yen
The fall in USD over the last two days is more due to the zero interest rate regime enacted by Federal Reserve, so that should not be a sign of risk aversion reduction.
The best guide for locating current markets' bottom: WHEN USD and YEN BOTH STARTS TO FALL IN VALUE in a sustained pattern. When these two currencies fall, it show a willingness to move exposure into other currencies or assets, be it stock or bonds. Before they are reflected in the prices, the signal will be most apparent in the currencies.
However, even then we cannot really ascertain a buying trigger. So, my advice would be to break up you investing funds into 3 portions, get ready your list of stocks to buy.
Catalyst #1: When yen/usd rate moves back to 94, plonk down 1/3 of your funds
Catalyst #2: When the rate moves to 97, move the second portion
Catalyst #3: When the rate breaks 100, move the rest in
A point not missed here is that if yen weakens against the USD, the latter would be gaining in strength. However, I am using the yen/usd rate as a guide, as I believe when the yen starts to weaken, the USD would also weaken, but not by as much - i.e. the USD would gain ground against yen but at the same time lose ground against the euros and other major currencies. I use the yen/usd rate because that is most widely followed. The yen is used as the determinant because it was the most popular currency for carry trades, the unbelievable strength now is due to risk aversion as the Japanese exporters are basically losing money and cannot compete below 90.
Comforting Data – Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 tends to bottom:
One quarter before the GDP bottoms; 3 months before the ISM manufacturing survey bottoms; 7 months before the peak unemployment rate; 4 months before the largest decline in non-farm payrolls; and 4 months before the bottom in consumer confidence surveys.
Using that as benchmarks, we should expect a genuine economic recovery somewhere between March and June of 2009.
The Obama Factor – Just like investing, to move share prices you need catalysts to make things happen. Risk aversion does not just go away, they also need to have catalysts. Obama will take office in January 2009. Call it goodwill, call it anything you want. He has already assembled a group of very credible people to help him. He has shown a clarity and purpose in hiring the best, rather than just from his own circles. The key would be the stimulus package he will be announcing. What started off as a $350bn package has now ballooned to $600bn, and now its likely to top $1 trillion.
Its not just a hopeful thing. As mentioned, the groundwork has been laid: very low interest rates, very high risk aversion, stocks at very cheap levels, governments pumping fiscal stimulus like crazy… its like everyone is working towards an Obama effect.
Confidence is a strange yet important part of global finance. A basic re-rating of 10% jump from current levels will improve valuations for a lot of toxic assets as well and in turn relives the constant need to raise capital. Further jumps in markets will see a willingness to buy even toxic assets. Things that look like being worth just 20 cents to the dollar may now be worth 50 cents to the dollar. It’s a cumulative snowball effect. Injured banks may even be able to use the capital raise to actually repair balance sheet and do actual lending, instead of constantly having to write down every quarter. You would be amazed what 10%-20% jump in equity prices can do to the entire system.
I am looking for the Dow to reach 10,000 by February / March 2009 and to go back to 12,000 by June 2009. I cannot safely say what will happen for the second half of 2009. A lot will depend on what the central banks and governments do over the next 6 months. If they play their cards right, I think global equity markets could fully recover by end 2009 and go on a 2-3 year unprecedented bull run.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
13 days for 2009 and say goodbye to young adult life
Well, the countdown for 13 days begin.
Another 13 days I will no longer called 20 plus. My age will call
mid life. That is 30 and above.
Getting older day by day.
Time flies.
Wish my 20 plus a very good bye and well come my 30.
Suddenly recall the days when I was young.
Let hope and pray that 30 plus will bring more, more, more, more
happiness,
prospects,
career advancement,
health and also
$$$$$$$$$.
Another 13 days I will no longer called 20 plus. My age will call
mid life. That is 30 and above.
Getting older day by day.
Time flies.
Wish my 20 plus a very good bye and well come my 30.
Suddenly recall the days when I was young.
Let hope and pray that 30 plus will bring more, more, more, more
happiness,
prospects,
career advancement,
health and also
$$$$$$$$$.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
We are blessed
We are blessed. Our country has been ignored since March 8 general election. When the crisis hit, we are not badly hit as those who want to sell has done it since 8 of March. Some projects cannot start due to change of state government. This is also a blessing. Due to the crisis, someone willing to do it with more competitive pricing.
Furthermore, most of our banks are well capitalised thus we do not have funding issues. The only issue is, bank are very selective on their customer base. I heard a few local and foreign bank in Malaysia are no longer extending high financing to their customer. They are reducing the risk by asking their customer to pump more cash in order to secured financing.
Due to the profit margin squezze on secured lending, bank are moving towards unsecured financing that enjoy higher profit due to higher risk involved. Among the products are personal loan, credit cards, revolving OD (unsecured type) and cash on call matching the credit card limits. These products enjoy profit spread of at least 3% up to 15% per annum. But the approval are strict as only selective customer are entitle for the facilities.
Our politician are also very mature. The power transaction are done gentleman way. No more street rally. All of us want to make a living only. We are moving towards first world mentality. Congratulation.
Furthermore, most of our banks are well capitalised thus we do not have funding issues. The only issue is, bank are very selective on their customer base. I heard a few local and foreign bank in Malaysia are no longer extending high financing to their customer. They are reducing the risk by asking their customer to pump more cash in order to secured financing.
Due to the profit margin squezze on secured lending, bank are moving towards unsecured financing that enjoy higher profit due to higher risk involved. Among the products are personal loan, credit cards, revolving OD (unsecured type) and cash on call matching the credit card limits. These products enjoy profit spread of at least 3% up to 15% per annum. But the approval are strict as only selective customer are entitle for the facilities.
Our politician are also very mature. The power transaction are done gentleman way. No more street rally. All of us want to make a living only. We are moving towards first world mentality. Congratulation.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Fast Cash with cheap rates
EON Bank credit card allow cash withdrawal without cash advance fees and 0 percent interest.
However they charge a rates of 4.99% per annum upfront as processing fees.
Very cheap fund.
After one year, can balance transfer to Public Bank. Even cheaper. 2.50% processing fees also with no interest.
I have not survey other bank yet. Let me know if there is better deal from other bank.
However they charge a rates of 4.99% per annum upfront as processing fees.
Very cheap fund.
After one year, can balance transfer to Public Bank. Even cheaper. 2.50% processing fees also with no interest.
I have not survey other bank yet. Let me know if there is better deal from other bank.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
How Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Albukhary made RM4.5bil
How Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Albukhary made RM4.5bil on http://digizenblog.blogspot.com/2008/12/how-to-become-very-rich-in-malaysia.htmlSwiftlet Farming
“You put in RM500,000 and if your location is good, you can net RM1mil a year within four years. Where else in the world can you find such a business?”Source:
Friday, December 12, 2008
Desa Palma another good buy
Checking with iproperty show three units for sale at
RM 95,000
RM 101,000
RM 110,000
Insider news say, government has approved a medical school just next to Inti University. Hope to see rental increase to RM 1000 per month and value RM 130,000 in near future.
RM 95,000
RM 101,000
RM 110,000
Insider news say, government has approved a medical school just next to Inti University. Hope to see rental increase to RM 1000 per month and value RM 130,000 in near future.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Lets make money for this coming Xmas
Selling real Xmas trees in Churches within next 2 weeks could be profitable.......What do you think?Since everyone talking about "going green"; real xmas tree should be good alternative to decorate your house or give it to friends as Xmas gift........
Articial Xmas tree are made of PVC that not-biogradable and harmful to earth, think about it..............
More information:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1862449,00.html
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2004/12/how_to_pick_a_g.php
http://digizenblog.blogspot.com/2008/12/selling-xmas-tree-could-be-profitable.html
Monday, November 24, 2008
The 2008 Christmas Carol
You'd better watch out
You'd better not cry
You'd better keep cash
I'm telling you why:
Recession is coming to town.
It's hitting you once,
It's hitting you twice
It doesn't care if you've been careful and wise
Recession is coming to town
It's worthless if you've got shares
It's worthless if you've got bonds
It's safe when you've got cash in hand
So keep cash for goodness sake, HEY
You'd better watch out
You'd better not cry
You'd better keep cash
I'm telling you why:
Recession is coming to town!
Finance products are confusing
Finance products are so vague
The banks make you bear the cost of risk
So keep out for goodness sake,
OHYou'd better watch out
You'd better not cry
You'd better keep cash
I'm telling you why:
Recession is coming to town.
http://digizenblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008-christmas-carol.html
You'd better not cry
You'd better keep cash
I'm telling you why:
Recession is coming to town.
It's hitting you once,
It's hitting you twice
It doesn't care if you've been careful and wise
Recession is coming to town
It's worthless if you've got shares
It's worthless if you've got bonds
It's safe when you've got cash in hand
So keep cash for goodness sake, HEY
You'd better watch out
You'd better not cry
You'd better keep cash
I'm telling you why:
Recession is coming to town!
Finance products are confusing
Finance products are so vague
The banks make you bear the cost of risk
So keep out for goodness sake,
OHYou'd better watch out
You'd better not cry
You'd better keep cash
I'm telling you why:
Recession is coming to town.
http://digizenblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008-christmas-carol.html
BNM drop OPR rates. BLR will follow by all banks
At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, Bank Negara Malaysia decided to reduce the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to 3.25 percent. The ceiling and floor rates of the corridor for the OPR are correspondingly reduced to 3.50 percent and 3.00 percent respectively.
Since the previous MPC meeting, the outlook for global growth has deteriorated further. Several major advanced economies are now in recession amid severe stress in their respective financial systems. The sharp slowdown in global demand, the significant fall in commodity prices and the substantial decline in equity prices have exerted greater downward pressure on the growth prospects of regional economies. In this environment, global inflation has begun to recede and this downward trend is expected to continue. These global developments have prompted authorities to provide significant liquidity support to the financial system, undertake financial sector resolution measures, as well as fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to support economic growth. The impact of these measures will however take some time to be fully realised.
The adverse global developments have already affected the Malaysian economy, as evidenced by the slowdown in export performance and lower equity prices. While domestic demand remains resilient, there are indications of slower private sector activity amid some softening in the labour market conditions and a more challenging business environment. Under these conditions, sustaining domestic demand is key to ensuring that growth in 2009 remains positive.
The risk to domestic price stability is now substantially reduced. Inflation has begun to moderate from its peak in the third quarter of 2008. Going forward, the lower cost pressures and the slowdown in demand are expected to exert a greater dampening influence on inflation. Inflation is, therefore, expected to moderate significantly, particularly in the second-half of 2009.
Given the heightened downside risks to growth and the diminishing inflationary pressures, the reduction in the OPR is a pre-emptive measure aimed at providing a more accommodative monetary environment. To further reduce the cost of intermediation, the MPC also decided to reduce the Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) from 4% to 3.5%, with effect from 1 December 2008.
Going forward, the global economic and the international financial conditions are expected to continue to remain volatile and uncertain. Bank Negara Malaysia will monitor closely the evolving developments and will undertake the appropriate policy response to avoid a severe economic downturn
Since the previous MPC meeting, the outlook for global growth has deteriorated further. Several major advanced economies are now in recession amid severe stress in their respective financial systems. The sharp slowdown in global demand, the significant fall in commodity prices and the substantial decline in equity prices have exerted greater downward pressure on the growth prospects of regional economies. In this environment, global inflation has begun to recede and this downward trend is expected to continue. These global developments have prompted authorities to provide significant liquidity support to the financial system, undertake financial sector resolution measures, as well as fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to support economic growth. The impact of these measures will however take some time to be fully realised.
The adverse global developments have already affected the Malaysian economy, as evidenced by the slowdown in export performance and lower equity prices. While domestic demand remains resilient, there are indications of slower private sector activity amid some softening in the labour market conditions and a more challenging business environment. Under these conditions, sustaining domestic demand is key to ensuring that growth in 2009 remains positive.
The risk to domestic price stability is now substantially reduced. Inflation has begun to moderate from its peak in the third quarter of 2008. Going forward, the lower cost pressures and the slowdown in demand are expected to exert a greater dampening influence on inflation. Inflation is, therefore, expected to moderate significantly, particularly in the second-half of 2009.
Given the heightened downside risks to growth and the diminishing inflationary pressures, the reduction in the OPR is a pre-emptive measure aimed at providing a more accommodative monetary environment. To further reduce the cost of intermediation, the MPC also decided to reduce the Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) from 4% to 3.5%, with effect from 1 December 2008.
Going forward, the global economic and the international financial conditions are expected to continue to remain volatile and uncertain. Bank Negara Malaysia will monitor closely the evolving developments and will undertake the appropriate policy response to avoid a severe economic downturn
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
How to make 100k in 3 years without sweat
While everyone believe crisis is just around the corner or has started, many people are scare. Scare economy slowdown will effect their life.
If we are scare, we will always be scare. While waiting for the scary time, why not think of how to make 100k in 3 years.
Now is end of 2008. 3 years means end of 2011. Somewhere around November 2011.
Assuming average Malaysian earning RM 3k per month.
They force themselves to save 1k per month.
Not into saving account or FD but shares.
Why shares?
I have seen many shares drop into attractive valuation with dividend yield as high as 15%.
Their Price earning ratio drop to as low as PE 2.
These are two simple but effective method to value a company.
Method is very simple. Find a counter with PE 3 to 4 and dividend yield of 10%.
Look for stable company. Business easy to understand and generating strong cash flow.
Assuming you invest 12k first year. Add dividend become 13.2k.
12k second year. Add first year plus dividend become 27.7k
12k third year. Add second year plus dividend become 43.6k.
When the market recover, the PE for this share recover to PE 9.
Your investment become 99k.
That is almost 100k in 3 years.
Question is, will this happen?
Answer is very high chances. Economy will not be bad for long time and by the time it recover, your portfolio will triple in value.
Once the 100k is on hand, let discuss on how to earn 1 million in 3 years.
If we are scare, we will always be scare. While waiting for the scary time, why not think of how to make 100k in 3 years.
Now is end of 2008. 3 years means end of 2011. Somewhere around November 2011.
Assuming average Malaysian earning RM 3k per month.
They force themselves to save 1k per month.
Not into saving account or FD but shares.
Why shares?
I have seen many shares drop into attractive valuation with dividend yield as high as 15%.
Their Price earning ratio drop to as low as PE 2.
These are two simple but effective method to value a company.
Method is very simple. Find a counter with PE 3 to 4 and dividend yield of 10%.
Look for stable company. Business easy to understand and generating strong cash flow.
Assuming you invest 12k first year. Add dividend become 13.2k.
12k second year. Add first year plus dividend become 27.7k
12k third year. Add second year plus dividend become 43.6k.
When the market recover, the PE for this share recover to PE 9.
Your investment become 99k.
That is almost 100k in 3 years.
Question is, will this happen?
Answer is very high chances. Economy will not be bad for long time and by the time it recover, your portfolio will triple in value.
Once the 100k is on hand, let discuss on how to earn 1 million in 3 years.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Jokes
A couple of redneck hunters are out in
the woods when one of them falls to the ground.
He doesn't seem to be breathing
and his eyes are rolled back in his head.
The other redneck starts to panic, then
whips out his cell phone and calls 911.
He frantically blurts out to the operator,
"O my gawd! Help! My friend just died.
He's Dead! What can I do?"
The operator, trying to calm him says,
"Take it easy. I can help.
Just listen to me and follow my instructions.
First, lets make sure he's dead."
There's a short pause, and then the operator hears a loud gun shot!!!
The redneck comes back on the line and says, "OK, now what?"
the woods when one of them falls to the ground.
He doesn't seem to be breathing
and his eyes are rolled back in his head.
The other redneck starts to panic, then
whips out his cell phone and calls 911.
He frantically blurts out to the operator,
"O my gawd! Help! My friend just died.
He's Dead! What can I do?"
The operator, trying to calm him says,
"Take it easy. I can help.
Just listen to me and follow my instructions.
First, lets make sure he's dead."
There's a short pause, and then the operator hears a loud gun shot!!!
The redneck comes back on the line and says, "OK, now what?"
Sunday, November 9, 2008
DiGi's D'House
Kalau tak mau job depression, kerja kat DiGi lar...........
For more information, please visit http://digizenblog.blogspot.com/
p/s: jgn click google ads banyak-banyak, satu hari maximum sekali....nanti kena ban lagi susah
For more information, please visit http://digizenblog.blogspot.com/
p/s: jgn click google ads banyak-banyak, satu hari maximum sekali....nanti kena ban lagi susah
Mabuk Gila & Tangkap Basah
Inilah keadaan beliau sebelum jatuh terkangkang.......
Tangkap basah di dalam kereta beliau........
Tangkap basah di dalam kereta beliau........
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Job Depression and How to Overcome It
Are you suddenly sleepy all of the time? Is this feeling coupled with sadness and feelings of hopelessness? If so, you could be depressed.
Depression strikes most people at one time or another in their life. It could be an offset to a traumatic situation or a chemical imbalance. It could even be a result of your job.
A recent survey done by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) shows that certain occupations cause depression in their workers more than others. For women, these jobs are in the food preparation and service industry. For men, these jobs are in the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations. The reasons for these results are not yet clear. However, what is known is that feelings of depression can be overcome by the average employee. Here are a few things you can do.
1. Keep an Eye on how you help others. Make a written or mental note each day of how you help others in your occupation. Even if don't like your job, it will give you a 'positive' reason for doing it. It might even change your mind and help you love what you do and, as a result, lift your mood.
2. Work on other goals. If you work on other goals that lead you out of your occupation or build up your life in some way, you won't be focused on how much you dislike your job. You'll see that the 8 hours you spend at your place of employment is only a drop in the bucket compared to the other areas of your life. This realization alone will help alleviate your depression.
3. Redefine it. If part of the reason you're upset about your job is because of the process it takes to do it, change it. See if you can adjust your methods. It'll empower you and make you own what you do five days a week. As a result, you'll fee more zealous and alive about what you do.
4. Change jobs. This point is the most obvious one. If you really hate what you do and it's weighing heavy on your heart, change jobs. You don't have to know exactly what you want to do to try something new. As a matter of fact, many people go through several jobs before they find their dream one. So don't be afraid to make a change. It will re-energize your soul and alleviate feelings of sadness.
5. Tough it out. Sometimes, the reason why people are depressed about their jobs is because they are new and still learning it. If this best describes you, take a deep breath and understand that in a year you'll be an expert at it. So don't let feelings of imminent failure drag you down.
In conclusion, you CAN do things to overcome depression at your job without going on medication or letting it overtake you. Try one or all of these five methods and you'll soon be going to work with a smile on your face.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/414852/job_depression_and_how_to_overcome.html?page=2&cat=31
Depression strikes most people at one time or another in their life. It could be an offset to a traumatic situation or a chemical imbalance. It could even be a result of your job.
A recent survey done by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) shows that certain occupations cause depression in their workers more than others. For women, these jobs are in the food preparation and service industry. For men, these jobs are in the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations. The reasons for these results are not yet clear. However, what is known is that feelings of depression can be overcome by the average employee. Here are a few things you can do.
1. Keep an Eye on how you help others. Make a written or mental note each day of how you help others in your occupation. Even if don't like your job, it will give you a 'positive' reason for doing it. It might even change your mind and help you love what you do and, as a result, lift your mood.
2. Work on other goals. If you work on other goals that lead you out of your occupation or build up your life in some way, you won't be focused on how much you dislike your job. You'll see that the 8 hours you spend at your place of employment is only a drop in the bucket compared to the other areas of your life. This realization alone will help alleviate your depression.
3. Redefine it. If part of the reason you're upset about your job is because of the process it takes to do it, change it. See if you can adjust your methods. It'll empower you and make you own what you do five days a week. As a result, you'll fee more zealous and alive about what you do.
4. Change jobs. This point is the most obvious one. If you really hate what you do and it's weighing heavy on your heart, change jobs. You don't have to know exactly what you want to do to try something new. As a matter of fact, many people go through several jobs before they find their dream one. So don't be afraid to make a change. It will re-energize your soul and alleviate feelings of sadness.
5. Tough it out. Sometimes, the reason why people are depressed about their jobs is because they are new and still learning it. If this best describes you, take a deep breath and understand that in a year you'll be an expert at it. So don't let feelings of imminent failure drag you down.
In conclusion, you CAN do things to overcome depression at your job without going on medication or letting it overtake you. Try one or all of these five methods and you'll soon be going to work with a smile on your face.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/414852/job_depression_and_how_to_overcome.html?page=2&cat=31
Monday, October 27, 2008
31958 to 10676
The five digit numbers are not jackpot or lottery number. These are numbers of Hang Seng Index from the highest points of 31958 to the lowest points of 10676.
As we know, China is a growing country and Hong Kong is the proxy for China economy. The question is, what is the lowest can Hang Seng Index go?
A lot of us predicted that stock market will crash some day. Now, it has crash.
For those who are ready with bundle of cash, now is the right time to capture some shares in the market.
Some say the lowest has yet to come.
Well, we will not know when is the lowest but when we average the purchase, we still can make a bundle of money for Deepavali celebration.
Happy Deepavali.
As we know, China is a growing country and Hong Kong is the proxy for China economy. The question is, what is the lowest can Hang Seng Index go?
A lot of us predicted that stock market will crash some day. Now, it has crash.
For those who are ready with bundle of cash, now is the right time to capture some shares in the market.
Some say the lowest has yet to come.
Well, we will not know when is the lowest but when we average the purchase, we still can make a bundle of money for Deepavali celebration.
Happy Deepavali.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Tun Daim predicted it. Selangor, Penang and Kedah
Saturday December 22, 2007
Barisan has to watch out for three states, says Daim
PENANG: Selangor, Penang and Kedah have been identified as potential “hotspots” where the Government should be paying more attention ahead of the next general election, said former finance minister Tun Daim Zainuddin.
In an exclusive interview with China Press, he said based on his findings and feedback gathered from the people, the Government should give priority in resolving the existing issues affecting the three states before the general election.
He said there was a current trend of those in the middle-income group in Selangor being unhappy with certain government decisions.
He added that Penang, as usual, remained a typical political state that boasts of having the most active political participation.
“The state government’s policy has always come under scrutiny. Therefore, complaints and demands from the people should be taken seriously to avoid “a wind of change” in the next general election,” he said.
He said Barisan Nasional’s elected representatives should make regular rounds to their constituencies to serve the people better.
“If the people’s requests are reasonable, I am sure the Government will pay attention to them and give in to the requests,” he said.
He added that the people would continue to support Barisan if it fulfilled all its promises in the last elections.
Barisan has to watch out for three states, says Daim
PENANG: Selangor, Penang and Kedah have been identified as potential “hotspots” where the Government should be paying more attention ahead of the next general election, said former finance minister Tun Daim Zainuddin.
In an exclusive interview with China Press, he said based on his findings and feedback gathered from the people, the Government should give priority in resolving the existing issues affecting the three states before the general election.
He said there was a current trend of those in the middle-income group in Selangor being unhappy with certain government decisions.
He added that Penang, as usual, remained a typical political state that boasts of having the most active political participation.
“The state government’s policy has always come under scrutiny. Therefore, complaints and demands from the people should be taken seriously to avoid “a wind of change” in the next general election,” he said.
He said Barisan Nasional’s elected representatives should make regular rounds to their constituencies to serve the people better.
“If the people’s requests are reasonable, I am sure the Government will pay attention to them and give in to the requests,” he said.
He added that the people would continue to support Barisan if it fulfilled all its promises in the last elections.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Mock election
Go to http://www.malaysia-today.net. There is a small item on the right hand side which allow you to click either voting for Barisan or opposition. I click on it and find 93% of them vote for opposition. What a surprising result.
Go and pay a visit.
Go and pay a visit.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Petikan menarik dari blog A. Kadir Jasin
BEKAS Perdana Menteri, Dr Mahahir Mohamad, hari ini menyarankan agar ahli dan penyokong Umno menggunakan pilihan raya umum (PRU) akan datang bagi “membersihkan” parti itu.
Katanya, tiada jalan lain untuk membersihkan parti itu daripada pemimpin yang tidak cekap dan tidak amanah. Dr Mahathir menggunakan istilah Inggeris “cleansing” bagi memperjelaskan apa yang beliau maksudkan.
Ini, tegas beliau, terpaksa dilakukan kerana segala percubaan menegur dan mengubah pemimpin serta dasar parti dari dalam telah digagalkan.
Bercakap kepada sidang akhbar di Putrajaya selepas melancarkan buku “Dr Mahathir’s Selected Letters to World Leaders,” beliau merujuk kepada hasutan serta politik wang yang digunakan bagi menyekat percubaan beliau menjadi perwakilan biasa Kubang Pasu ke Perhimpunan Agung Umno 2006.
Ditanya apakah beliau bersedia membantu Umno dan Barisan Nasional pada PRU akan datang, Dr Mahathir berkata beliau sedia jika dijemput.
“Tetapi saya akan hanya membantu calon yang bersih dan berwibawa sahaja,” katanya sambil merujuk kepada PRU 2004 apabila BN menghalang beliau daripada berkempen di kawasan-kawasan tertentu.
Ditanya apakah strategi “pukul anak sindir menantu” itu mungkin membawa kesan buruk kepada Umno dan Barisan Nasional, Dr Mahathir berkata beliau tidak nampak ada cara lain bagi membersihkan Umno dan mengembalikan suara ahli biasa.
Ahli dan pemimpin bawahan Umno tidak lagi berani atau berpeluang bersuara, katanya.
“Lihatlah bagaimana bahagian dan cawangan Umno yang menjemput saya memberi ceramah diberi kata dua oleh pucuk pimpinan dan dikunjungi oleh polis,” tegasnya.
Katanya, apabila beliau menegur kepemimpinan parti atau tidak bersetuju dengan dasar serta program kerajaan, beliau ditengking, diherdik, dicaci dan dicerca oleh pelbagai pihak dalam Umno.
Ditanya apakah beliau tidak bimbang kemungkinan anak yang dipukul akan mati tetapi menantu buat tidak peduli dan terus berkuasa, Dr Mahathir sekali lagi menegaskan beliau tidak nampak ada jalan lain membersihkan parti daripada unsur-unsur yang memudaratkan.
Ditanya apakah keputusan PRU nanti akan menyerupai PRU 1999 apabila undi BN merosot teruk, Dr Mahathir pada mulanya berkata ia mungkin menyerupai keputusan PRU 1969.
Tetapi apabila ditekan mengenai perbandingan dengan keputusan PRU 1999, beliau berkata keputusan PRU 1999 dipengaruhi oleh peristiwa “black eye” (mata lebam Anwar Ibrahim).
Ditanya apakah pendirian beliau itu mungkin disalah-mengertikan sebagai memihak kepada pembangkang, Dr Mahathir berkata beliau tetap menyokong BN dan Umno, tetapi beliau mahu pengundi memilih calon yang bersih dan menolak “kayu mati” (dead wood) dan calon yang “kotor.”
Sidang akhbar itu dihadiri oleh ramai wakil media massa arus perdana, laman-laman berita bebas, wakil media asing dan penulis blog, termasuk yang mewakili atau memihak kepada parti-parti pembangkang.
Buku “Dr Mahathir’s Selected Letters to World Leaders” yang diberi kata pengantar dan ulasan oleh Abdullah Ahmad, bekas Ketua Pengarang Kumpulan NSTP itu mengandungi surat-menyurat antara Dr Mahathir dengan beberapa pemimpin utama dunia.
Mereka termasuklah George W Bush, Tony Blair, Margaret Thatcher, Jacques Chirac, Edouard Balladur, Putera Charles, Bill Clinton, John Major, Robert Dole dan Michel Rocard.
[Addendum]
Gist of the story
1. Umo member and supporters should use the coming general election to “cleanse” the party of inefficient and untrustworthy leaders and the dead wood;
2. There’s no choice but to resort to the GE because attempts to change the party from within had been thwarted;
3. Even his modest attempt to become an ordinary divisional delegate to the party’s 2006 general assembly was subjected to threat and money politics;
4. Divisions and branches that invited him to talk were hauled up by party’s headquarters and organisers were questioned by the police;
5. Members and grass root leaders no longer dare to speak out;
6. He was shouted at, scolded, cursed and maligned for criticizing the party and government;
7. He is not siding with the oppositions. In fact he is willing to campaign for good and credible BN candidates if invited;
8. He urged Umno members and supporters to reject inefficient and corrupt leaders and the dead wood;
9. He said they cannot avoid punishing the party because there is no other way to cleanse it of such leaders; and
10. The outcome of the coming GE could be as bad as that of the 1969 poll.
[Transcript of Dr Mahathir’s Press Conference issued by his Press Secretary, Sufi Yusof]
Dr M: First thing before you begin to ask me questions I would like to thank you very much for your presence today. What my book is all about I have already explained just now so if there are anymore questions you are welcomed to ask, if I can answer, I will, if I cannot I will just shut up. Okay...
Q: Will you contest in the coming General Election?
Dr M : Well like the comedian who was talking about his girlfried, he would like to but he didn't...
Q: How much does the US recession is likely to affect Malaysia?
Dr M : Well actually today the US should close down because it had been bankrupt for several years now. It has deficits. But because the United States owns IMF (International Monetary Fund) the IMF has not taken any action. If we were in that situation we would have been crushed to the ground but this is the US where they can print money and where they can make use of other opeople's money to sustain an economy that is unsustainable.
But unfortunately too many countries have trade and investment links with the uS and some of these investments abroad are really meant to supply the US with their products. If the US is not in a position to buy their products then these companies located in other countries including Malaysia will suffer. So the fact remains that the US economy is so big that its collapse is going to affect the world. So the world is not going to allow it to collapse just like the US will not allow certain big banks to collapse. We will feel the impact, whether we like it or not. We will feel the impact. In fact we are already feeling the impact. Today we are in a state of denial and bad things are coming in the future because it is not going to be easy to ensure that the US recession does not take place. It is not easy to reverse the process
Q: Tun now Malaysia does not trade much with the US?
Dr M : I don’t know the last figure I had was about 30% of our exports still go to the US. So 80 per cent of our trade about...100 billion a year is a very big chunk
Q: Your comment on lacklustre attitude from OIC in response to the problems in Palestine
Dr M : It is usual that they are not interested in the sufferings of the people in Gaza or Palestine. They are too busy with other things. They have never shown any sympathy for the Palestinian, only verbal support but no really tangible support.
Q: Tun akan turun Padang berkempen untuk BN?
Dr M : Saya dulu saya terima iaitu saya akan bantu dalam kempen tapi pada tahun 2004 oleh kerana parti BN begitu popular saya dikehendaki tidak kempen di tempat-tempat tertentu. Saya akan kempen cuma kalau saya percaya orang yang dicalonkan itu ialah orang yang boleh membawa kebaikan.
Q: Politics is dirty because of politicians or is it that politics is just dirty?
Dr M : The politicians, because I am also a politician I don't play dirty politics but when people who have openly told lies and the whole country knows they told lies and they get re-elected...and (this) cause me to lose my respect and lose my faith in the political system as practised by them.
Q: In your book...(not audible)
Dr M : I have claimed to be a Muslim fundamentalist. This one (Hadhari) is modern Islam which is another thing altogether. I go for the fundamentals and the fundamentals of Islam is very good. It is not like the Christian fundamentalist where they are equated with extremism. To equate Muslim fundamentalist with extremism is wrong. It’s a misnomer. If you really follow the teachings of Islam, the basic teachings of Islam, you should be a very good man, a very progressive man, well-balanced person.
Q: (not audible)
Dr M : I always point out that for 1,400 years there have been many interpretations of Islam and many of these interpretations are influenced by the situation occurring at that time so the interpretation today is because we are a democratic country we will have elections and anything that we say can be used by the opposition in order to gain support.
Q: You mean current situation our interpretation is more for political reasons?
Dr M : Yes I think it is political more than religious. If its religious we need to sit down and discuss the basis of this decision and then only we can really say that it is an Islamic injunction not to do certain things.
Q: You say you will campaign for candidates...does this include opposition?
Dr M : No, I will not campaign for the opposition. But I am saying the people who support the BN should be a little bit more selective. Should think, should choose wisdom in their choice of the people they will support. If people name some deadwood, some corrupt politician as candidates even if they are from the BN, BN supporters should not support them. That way we can clean the party, BN and UMNO because there is no hope that Umno can be cleaned from within because everything is controlled now. Nobody can have an opinion and any contrary views they will make (is) sure will not be heard.
Q: Tun mengatakan bahawa pengundi termasuk penyokong BN perlu melakukan perubahan di piliharaya untuk megubah kepimpinan BN dan Umno. Itu maksud Tun?
Dr M : Ya, itu sahaja harapan kita. Itu pun bukanlah kuat sangat harapan kerana saya berpendapat pengundi-pengundi biasa pun kadang-kadang terpengaruh dengan cara yang tidak halal tetapi kita sudah hilang keupayaan untuk menukar pemimpin di peringkat parti kerana parti sekarang ini dibenar cuma mengata "Yes" kepada apa yang presiden kata. Jadi tidak ada real opinion dalam party anymore. No way you can change the leadership of the party or the way the party operates from within. If the people in Malaysia wishes to have a party that is centered on nepotism and corruption then of course they will vote for the same people and will achieve no correction
Q: Are you saying the PM for the moment can be considered in your definition as deadwood?
Dr M : I don’t know about what my opinion is but i know i have differences with him.
Q: Lepas tun lepas jawatan PM ada khabar angin tentang fail rasuah tokoh Umno kelantan yang Tun serah kepada Pak Lah untuk tindakan...
Dr M : Fail kalau ada akan diserah oleh ACA. Bukan saya punya tugas nak serah file tapi saya tahu ada kes tertentu yang harus diselidik dan tindakan diambil. Saya amat sedar bahawa kes corruption bukan mudah untuk kita buktikan. Dengan itu kita cuma akan dengar cerita yang buruk tetapi akhirnya tiada satu tindakan pun yang boleh diambil
Q: When you stepped down in 2003 you said you made a gentleman's agreement for him to stay one term. In this case macam mana?
Dr M : Even if I said I had this gentlemen's agreement there is no way I can prove it. My thinking that since he was older than Najib he should be PM for a term and then Najib should be able to take over.
Q: In the 22 years of your administration, there was fast track development, many things were done in record time...PM now needs more time beyond five years to develop his projects. What is your view?
Dr M : I know it takes time to implement plans and projects but i think if that is to be used as an excuse to stay in power for 18 years that would not be very welcome. But that time to implement...at this time only announcements are being made. He is already asking for time to do this.
Q: The PM announced economic corridor, repercussion not now...commitments made are huge. If not able to be delivered what will happen to future PM?
Dr M : What i think is that it certainly will not be delivered by the time of the election. So this is the reason why you should allow the present Government to go on so that they can implement. But the way, the things are being implemented are also questionable. Giving it to the so called GLC which then gives contracts to other people, none of which are very open that is not really the right way to do things.
Q: What is you greatest concern in 50 years looking at Malaysia?
Dr M : Well, I think the Government does not seem to know how to progress, how to implement things. It’s already quite sometime since I stepped down. (It) would have been easier perhaps to just continue with the projects already on the ground but it was decided to postpone ostensibly because of lack of funds. But what I do know is that when I stepped down there was enough money to go ahead with all the so-called mega projects. Now they have decided to go ahead with some of the mega projects but the cost is very high, as much as 50 % more simply because the cost of living, the cost of everything has gone up in the meantime. So the postponement was totally unjustified. Now they realised that these are needed infrastructure.
Q: Time to implement projects...you mean he should carry on as PM?
Dr M : It depends upon the record you have shown in some other things that doesn't need too much time. If you show that you can implement it, the smaller projects, i think you should be given more time for the bigger projects. But what you see is just a stoppage, a kind of reversal of the previous policies and projects ostensibly because there was no funds and this is not such a good judgment.
Q: Now you are complaining of cronyism and nepotism in Pak Lah's term...(question not audible)
Dr M : Well I am aware that I was not always right but those people who were called my cronies were not my cronies. As a matter of fact when I was accused of these I published, I made public the list of people who had projects etc and it was clear that they were not people I know except for the very well known figures. I was not practising cronyism but of course these (accusations) were attached to me as a kind of label to undermine my credibility (and) I cannot get away from it. But today we see nepotism creeping in. We see companies getting projects to the extent that many Malaysian entrepreneurs and contractors are now going abroad. They said there is no opportunity within the country.
Q: Tun, as ahli Umno No 1. Are you aware of current happenings within the party, do you get any updates?
Dr M : Nothing, I am completely cut out
Q: Compared to during your time the BN is no longer as united as before...
Dr M : When we have a group of people working together, we must know how to handle them. They have grouses, they have differences but if you handle them properly and tackle the grouses, I think they will sit together. But if you show any weakness, giving in, people will take advantage of your weakness.
Q: In the recent state assembly sitting in Kelantan Datuk Mustafa Mohamad admitted he asked you to stop developing Kelantan when PAS took over Government...
Dr M : Well not only Mustafa but all the rest of Umno felt you should not develop Kelantan because if you do they will tell people..."Look even if you don't vote for BN you will still get development, so why bother to vote for BN?" - that's what PAS will say and that has always been a problem with PAS even in my constituency. If a village is supportive of PAS and i were to give a bridge or whatever PAS will tell people "Look you don't have to support the Government so support us." Because of that we had to hold back.
Q: Do you think political Islam will play a big role in the next General Election?
Dr M : It will be exploited to the utmost by PAS and the Government will have its hands full trying to handle it.
Q: What about racial issues?
Dr M : It is unfortunate because we have never really achieved racial harmony but we have been able to keep it within control. But now people are not only taking action based on race but also on religion. They say Hinduism was not something that will cause a ..... (not audidble)....but now Hindus apparently feel dissatisfied with their lot and have made this demonstration. I don't say that because I agree with them. I don't agree with them. But they see a Government that is retreating and of course they want to take advantage.
Q: Apa pendapat tun tentang sekiranya anak beranak dapat jawatan utama dalam parti umno. Bolehkah orang Melayu terima?
Dr M: Psychology....attitude Melayu berbeza sikit. Dia sokong bukan kerana individu. Sokong kerana parti, kalau bagi a piece of log there or a stone they will still vote the party because this is my party and I cannot allow my party to lose. The Chinese are much more selective. They did not like me in 1969. They made sure I lost the election but they also made sure the Alliance won the election. So if you cause a person that you don't like to lose, it doesn't mean that the party will lose, the party will win.
Q: You were reported that MIC should be blamed for the Indians' plight. Were you misquoted?
Dr M : No, its not MIC as a political party. But the thing is that people, rather Indians, who may not agree with MIC but still wish to support the BN are not given ay chance at all. In their frustration, whether MIC is right or wrong is a different matter, obviously there is no opportunity for anybody else, any other Indians, to come up.
Q: What role are you trying to play in the next General Election?
Dr M : I'm trying to promote cleansing of the party by the people, because within the party it is not possible to cleanse. If I say anything there will be a chorus of people who will curse me including some of my former ministers...they will curse me...so if I'm going to be cursed by them i might as well be cursed for everything else.
Q: Strategi pukul anak sindir menantu...
Dr M : There is a risk in all these things but I hope that we will love this country enough to vote for the best candidate.
Q: Masksuydnya Tun boleh terima hakikat pembangkang menang lebih?
Dr M : No, pembangkang tak mungkin menang lebih banyak daripada BN. Lebih banyak dari sekarang mungkin, tapi tak boleh jadi kerajaan.
Q: More than in 1999?
Dr M : 1999 was a different matter. A question of a black eye
Q: 99 was issues of emotion, but now isu harga barang, jenayah jadi kebimbangan pada rakyat...
Dr M : Well the issues are different. There is problem of inflation etc but more important is the quality of leadership, quality of Umno that has degenerated to the point where members cannot say anything. You say something you are hauled up and asked to choose between the PM and whoever. So there is not a slightest freedom that is allowed and in my case I was invited by many people and the people who invited me were called by the police not to go ahead with the invitation, to cancel the invitation. Of course you can use police for implementing the law but there is no law that allows police to threaten people that if they hold the meeting and invite me they will get into trouble. But this is what happened.
During my time, Tengku Razaleigh wanted to make a speech they could make a speech. Anybody who wanted to make a speech, even Tengku Razaleigh, I did not stop him. But here the moment I stepped down almost I was practically not allowed to speak.
Q: How do you plan to cleanse the party?
Dr M : Its up to the people to vote in those leaders who are clean because the party will not clean itself
Q: But what is you plan?
Dr M : I don't know all I can say is talk to you (the Press)...
Q: How about the leadership,,,
Dr M : Its up to the people to make an assessment as to who should continue or who should go.
Q: Your assessment...will there be total change in the line-up
Dr M : I think there will be no total change. There will be some people who will be retained some people who have not delivered they should not be retained
Q: The young generation?
Dr M : Unfortunately the young generation does not even bother to register
Q: Claims of vote buying, any proof?
Dr M : In my case I have proof. People were bribed not to vote for me in my constituency and I expect that to be extended, it was nothing just a small matter but still these attempts were made to prevent me from becoming just a wakil
Q: Do you think there will be outright vote buying?
Dr M : There is that possibility. I was told in the by election that thing happened.
Katanya, tiada jalan lain untuk membersihkan parti itu daripada pemimpin yang tidak cekap dan tidak amanah. Dr Mahathir menggunakan istilah Inggeris “cleansing” bagi memperjelaskan apa yang beliau maksudkan.
Ini, tegas beliau, terpaksa dilakukan kerana segala percubaan menegur dan mengubah pemimpin serta dasar parti dari dalam telah digagalkan.
Bercakap kepada sidang akhbar di Putrajaya selepas melancarkan buku “Dr Mahathir’s Selected Letters to World Leaders,” beliau merujuk kepada hasutan serta politik wang yang digunakan bagi menyekat percubaan beliau menjadi perwakilan biasa Kubang Pasu ke Perhimpunan Agung Umno 2006.
Ditanya apakah beliau bersedia membantu Umno dan Barisan Nasional pada PRU akan datang, Dr Mahathir berkata beliau sedia jika dijemput.
“Tetapi saya akan hanya membantu calon yang bersih dan berwibawa sahaja,” katanya sambil merujuk kepada PRU 2004 apabila BN menghalang beliau daripada berkempen di kawasan-kawasan tertentu.
Ditanya apakah strategi “pukul anak sindir menantu” itu mungkin membawa kesan buruk kepada Umno dan Barisan Nasional, Dr Mahathir berkata beliau tidak nampak ada cara lain bagi membersihkan Umno dan mengembalikan suara ahli biasa.
Ahli dan pemimpin bawahan Umno tidak lagi berani atau berpeluang bersuara, katanya.
“Lihatlah bagaimana bahagian dan cawangan Umno yang menjemput saya memberi ceramah diberi kata dua oleh pucuk pimpinan dan dikunjungi oleh polis,” tegasnya.
Katanya, apabila beliau menegur kepemimpinan parti atau tidak bersetuju dengan dasar serta program kerajaan, beliau ditengking, diherdik, dicaci dan dicerca oleh pelbagai pihak dalam Umno.
Ditanya apakah beliau tidak bimbang kemungkinan anak yang dipukul akan mati tetapi menantu buat tidak peduli dan terus berkuasa, Dr Mahathir sekali lagi menegaskan beliau tidak nampak ada jalan lain membersihkan parti daripada unsur-unsur yang memudaratkan.
Ditanya apakah keputusan PRU nanti akan menyerupai PRU 1999 apabila undi BN merosot teruk, Dr Mahathir pada mulanya berkata ia mungkin menyerupai keputusan PRU 1969.
Tetapi apabila ditekan mengenai perbandingan dengan keputusan PRU 1999, beliau berkata keputusan PRU 1999 dipengaruhi oleh peristiwa “black eye” (mata lebam Anwar Ibrahim).
Ditanya apakah pendirian beliau itu mungkin disalah-mengertikan sebagai memihak kepada pembangkang, Dr Mahathir berkata beliau tetap menyokong BN dan Umno, tetapi beliau mahu pengundi memilih calon yang bersih dan menolak “kayu mati” (dead wood) dan calon yang “kotor.”
Sidang akhbar itu dihadiri oleh ramai wakil media massa arus perdana, laman-laman berita bebas, wakil media asing dan penulis blog, termasuk yang mewakili atau memihak kepada parti-parti pembangkang.
Buku “Dr Mahathir’s Selected Letters to World Leaders” yang diberi kata pengantar dan ulasan oleh Abdullah Ahmad, bekas Ketua Pengarang Kumpulan NSTP itu mengandungi surat-menyurat antara Dr Mahathir dengan beberapa pemimpin utama dunia.
Mereka termasuklah George W Bush, Tony Blair, Margaret Thatcher, Jacques Chirac, Edouard Balladur, Putera Charles, Bill Clinton, John Major, Robert Dole dan Michel Rocard.
[Addendum]
Gist of the story
1. Umo member and supporters should use the coming general election to “cleanse” the party of inefficient and untrustworthy leaders and the dead wood;
2. There’s no choice but to resort to the GE because attempts to change the party from within had been thwarted;
3. Even his modest attempt to become an ordinary divisional delegate to the party’s 2006 general assembly was subjected to threat and money politics;
4. Divisions and branches that invited him to talk were hauled up by party’s headquarters and organisers were questioned by the police;
5. Members and grass root leaders no longer dare to speak out;
6. He was shouted at, scolded, cursed and maligned for criticizing the party and government;
7. He is not siding with the oppositions. In fact he is willing to campaign for good and credible BN candidates if invited;
8. He urged Umno members and supporters to reject inefficient and corrupt leaders and the dead wood;
9. He said they cannot avoid punishing the party because there is no other way to cleanse it of such leaders; and
10. The outcome of the coming GE could be as bad as that of the 1969 poll.
[Transcript of Dr Mahathir’s Press Conference issued by his Press Secretary, Sufi Yusof]
Dr M: First thing before you begin to ask me questions I would like to thank you very much for your presence today. What my book is all about I have already explained just now so if there are anymore questions you are welcomed to ask, if I can answer, I will, if I cannot I will just shut up. Okay...
Q: Will you contest in the coming General Election?
Dr M : Well like the comedian who was talking about his girlfried, he would like to but he didn't...
Q: How much does the US recession is likely to affect Malaysia?
Dr M : Well actually today the US should close down because it had been bankrupt for several years now. It has deficits. But because the United States owns IMF (International Monetary Fund) the IMF has not taken any action. If we were in that situation we would have been crushed to the ground but this is the US where they can print money and where they can make use of other opeople's money to sustain an economy that is unsustainable.
But unfortunately too many countries have trade and investment links with the uS and some of these investments abroad are really meant to supply the US with their products. If the US is not in a position to buy their products then these companies located in other countries including Malaysia will suffer. So the fact remains that the US economy is so big that its collapse is going to affect the world. So the world is not going to allow it to collapse just like the US will not allow certain big banks to collapse. We will feel the impact, whether we like it or not. We will feel the impact. In fact we are already feeling the impact. Today we are in a state of denial and bad things are coming in the future because it is not going to be easy to ensure that the US recession does not take place. It is not easy to reverse the process
Q: Tun now Malaysia does not trade much with the US?
Dr M : I don’t know the last figure I had was about 30% of our exports still go to the US. So 80 per cent of our trade about...100 billion a year is a very big chunk
Q: Your comment on lacklustre attitude from OIC in response to the problems in Palestine
Dr M : It is usual that they are not interested in the sufferings of the people in Gaza or Palestine. They are too busy with other things. They have never shown any sympathy for the Palestinian, only verbal support but no really tangible support.
Q: Tun akan turun Padang berkempen untuk BN?
Dr M : Saya dulu saya terima iaitu saya akan bantu dalam kempen tapi pada tahun 2004 oleh kerana parti BN begitu popular saya dikehendaki tidak kempen di tempat-tempat tertentu. Saya akan kempen cuma kalau saya percaya orang yang dicalonkan itu ialah orang yang boleh membawa kebaikan.
Q: Politics is dirty because of politicians or is it that politics is just dirty?
Dr M : The politicians, because I am also a politician I don't play dirty politics but when people who have openly told lies and the whole country knows they told lies and they get re-elected...and (this) cause me to lose my respect and lose my faith in the political system as practised by them.
Q: In your book...(not audible)
Dr M : I have claimed to be a Muslim fundamentalist. This one (Hadhari) is modern Islam which is another thing altogether. I go for the fundamentals and the fundamentals of Islam is very good. It is not like the Christian fundamentalist where they are equated with extremism. To equate Muslim fundamentalist with extremism is wrong. It’s a misnomer. If you really follow the teachings of Islam, the basic teachings of Islam, you should be a very good man, a very progressive man, well-balanced person.
Q: (not audible)
Dr M : I always point out that for 1,400 years there have been many interpretations of Islam and many of these interpretations are influenced by the situation occurring at that time so the interpretation today is because we are a democratic country we will have elections and anything that we say can be used by the opposition in order to gain support.
Q: You mean current situation our interpretation is more for political reasons?
Dr M : Yes I think it is political more than religious. If its religious we need to sit down and discuss the basis of this decision and then only we can really say that it is an Islamic injunction not to do certain things.
Q: You say you will campaign for candidates...does this include opposition?
Dr M : No, I will not campaign for the opposition. But I am saying the people who support the BN should be a little bit more selective. Should think, should choose wisdom in their choice of the people they will support. If people name some deadwood, some corrupt politician as candidates even if they are from the BN, BN supporters should not support them. That way we can clean the party, BN and UMNO because there is no hope that Umno can be cleaned from within because everything is controlled now. Nobody can have an opinion and any contrary views they will make (is) sure will not be heard.
Q: Tun mengatakan bahawa pengundi termasuk penyokong BN perlu melakukan perubahan di piliharaya untuk megubah kepimpinan BN dan Umno. Itu maksud Tun?
Dr M : Ya, itu sahaja harapan kita. Itu pun bukanlah kuat sangat harapan kerana saya berpendapat pengundi-pengundi biasa pun kadang-kadang terpengaruh dengan cara yang tidak halal tetapi kita sudah hilang keupayaan untuk menukar pemimpin di peringkat parti kerana parti sekarang ini dibenar cuma mengata "Yes" kepada apa yang presiden kata. Jadi tidak ada real opinion dalam party anymore. No way you can change the leadership of the party or the way the party operates from within. If the people in Malaysia wishes to have a party that is centered on nepotism and corruption then of course they will vote for the same people and will achieve no correction
Q: Are you saying the PM for the moment can be considered in your definition as deadwood?
Dr M : I don’t know about what my opinion is but i know i have differences with him.
Q: Lepas tun lepas jawatan PM ada khabar angin tentang fail rasuah tokoh Umno kelantan yang Tun serah kepada Pak Lah untuk tindakan...
Dr M : Fail kalau ada akan diserah oleh ACA. Bukan saya punya tugas nak serah file tapi saya tahu ada kes tertentu yang harus diselidik dan tindakan diambil. Saya amat sedar bahawa kes corruption bukan mudah untuk kita buktikan. Dengan itu kita cuma akan dengar cerita yang buruk tetapi akhirnya tiada satu tindakan pun yang boleh diambil
Q: When you stepped down in 2003 you said you made a gentleman's agreement for him to stay one term. In this case macam mana?
Dr M : Even if I said I had this gentlemen's agreement there is no way I can prove it. My thinking that since he was older than Najib he should be PM for a term and then Najib should be able to take over.
Q: In the 22 years of your administration, there was fast track development, many things were done in record time...PM now needs more time beyond five years to develop his projects. What is your view?
Dr M : I know it takes time to implement plans and projects but i think if that is to be used as an excuse to stay in power for 18 years that would not be very welcome. But that time to implement...at this time only announcements are being made. He is already asking for time to do this.
Q: The PM announced economic corridor, repercussion not now...commitments made are huge. If not able to be delivered what will happen to future PM?
Dr M : What i think is that it certainly will not be delivered by the time of the election. So this is the reason why you should allow the present Government to go on so that they can implement. But the way, the things are being implemented are also questionable. Giving it to the so called GLC which then gives contracts to other people, none of which are very open that is not really the right way to do things.
Q: What is you greatest concern in 50 years looking at Malaysia?
Dr M : Well, I think the Government does not seem to know how to progress, how to implement things. It’s already quite sometime since I stepped down. (It) would have been easier perhaps to just continue with the projects already on the ground but it was decided to postpone ostensibly because of lack of funds. But what I do know is that when I stepped down there was enough money to go ahead with all the so-called mega projects. Now they have decided to go ahead with some of the mega projects but the cost is very high, as much as 50 % more simply because the cost of living, the cost of everything has gone up in the meantime. So the postponement was totally unjustified. Now they realised that these are needed infrastructure.
Q: Time to implement projects...you mean he should carry on as PM?
Dr M : It depends upon the record you have shown in some other things that doesn't need too much time. If you show that you can implement it, the smaller projects, i think you should be given more time for the bigger projects. But what you see is just a stoppage, a kind of reversal of the previous policies and projects ostensibly because there was no funds and this is not such a good judgment.
Q: Now you are complaining of cronyism and nepotism in Pak Lah's term...(question not audible)
Dr M : Well I am aware that I was not always right but those people who were called my cronies were not my cronies. As a matter of fact when I was accused of these I published, I made public the list of people who had projects etc and it was clear that they were not people I know except for the very well known figures. I was not practising cronyism but of course these (accusations) were attached to me as a kind of label to undermine my credibility (and) I cannot get away from it. But today we see nepotism creeping in. We see companies getting projects to the extent that many Malaysian entrepreneurs and contractors are now going abroad. They said there is no opportunity within the country.
Q: Tun, as ahli Umno No 1. Are you aware of current happenings within the party, do you get any updates?
Dr M : Nothing, I am completely cut out
Q: Compared to during your time the BN is no longer as united as before...
Dr M : When we have a group of people working together, we must know how to handle them. They have grouses, they have differences but if you handle them properly and tackle the grouses, I think they will sit together. But if you show any weakness, giving in, people will take advantage of your weakness.
Q: In the recent state assembly sitting in Kelantan Datuk Mustafa Mohamad admitted he asked you to stop developing Kelantan when PAS took over Government...
Dr M : Well not only Mustafa but all the rest of Umno felt you should not develop Kelantan because if you do they will tell people..."Look even if you don't vote for BN you will still get development, so why bother to vote for BN?" - that's what PAS will say and that has always been a problem with PAS even in my constituency. If a village is supportive of PAS and i were to give a bridge or whatever PAS will tell people "Look you don't have to support the Government so support us." Because of that we had to hold back.
Q: Do you think political Islam will play a big role in the next General Election?
Dr M : It will be exploited to the utmost by PAS and the Government will have its hands full trying to handle it.
Q: What about racial issues?
Dr M : It is unfortunate because we have never really achieved racial harmony but we have been able to keep it within control. But now people are not only taking action based on race but also on religion. They say Hinduism was not something that will cause a ..... (not audidble)....but now Hindus apparently feel dissatisfied with their lot and have made this demonstration. I don't say that because I agree with them. I don't agree with them. But they see a Government that is retreating and of course they want to take advantage.
Q: Apa pendapat tun tentang sekiranya anak beranak dapat jawatan utama dalam parti umno. Bolehkah orang Melayu terima?
Dr M: Psychology....attitude Melayu berbeza sikit. Dia sokong bukan kerana individu. Sokong kerana parti, kalau bagi a piece of log there or a stone they will still vote the party because this is my party and I cannot allow my party to lose. The Chinese are much more selective. They did not like me in 1969. They made sure I lost the election but they also made sure the Alliance won the election. So if you cause a person that you don't like to lose, it doesn't mean that the party will lose, the party will win.
Q: You were reported that MIC should be blamed for the Indians' plight. Were you misquoted?
Dr M : No, its not MIC as a political party. But the thing is that people, rather Indians, who may not agree with MIC but still wish to support the BN are not given ay chance at all. In their frustration, whether MIC is right or wrong is a different matter, obviously there is no opportunity for anybody else, any other Indians, to come up.
Q: What role are you trying to play in the next General Election?
Dr M : I'm trying to promote cleansing of the party by the people, because within the party it is not possible to cleanse. If I say anything there will be a chorus of people who will curse me including some of my former ministers...they will curse me...so if I'm going to be cursed by them i might as well be cursed for everything else.
Q: Strategi pukul anak sindir menantu...
Dr M : There is a risk in all these things but I hope that we will love this country enough to vote for the best candidate.
Q: Masksuydnya Tun boleh terima hakikat pembangkang menang lebih?
Dr M : No, pembangkang tak mungkin menang lebih banyak daripada BN. Lebih banyak dari sekarang mungkin, tapi tak boleh jadi kerajaan.
Q: More than in 1999?
Dr M : 1999 was a different matter. A question of a black eye
Q: 99 was issues of emotion, but now isu harga barang, jenayah jadi kebimbangan pada rakyat...
Dr M : Well the issues are different. There is problem of inflation etc but more important is the quality of leadership, quality of Umno that has degenerated to the point where members cannot say anything. You say something you are hauled up and asked to choose between the PM and whoever. So there is not a slightest freedom that is allowed and in my case I was invited by many people and the people who invited me were called by the police not to go ahead with the invitation, to cancel the invitation. Of course you can use police for implementing the law but there is no law that allows police to threaten people that if they hold the meeting and invite me they will get into trouble. But this is what happened.
During my time, Tengku Razaleigh wanted to make a speech they could make a speech. Anybody who wanted to make a speech, even Tengku Razaleigh, I did not stop him. But here the moment I stepped down almost I was practically not allowed to speak.
Q: How do you plan to cleanse the party?
Dr M : Its up to the people to vote in those leaders who are clean because the party will not clean itself
Q: But what is you plan?
Dr M : I don't know all I can say is talk to you (the Press)...
Q: How about the leadership,,,
Dr M : Its up to the people to make an assessment as to who should continue or who should go.
Q: Your assessment...will there be total change in the line-up
Dr M : I think there will be no total change. There will be some people who will be retained some people who have not delivered they should not be retained
Q: The young generation?
Dr M : Unfortunately the young generation does not even bother to register
Q: Claims of vote buying, any proof?
Dr M : In my case I have proof. People were bribed not to vote for me in my constituency and I expect that to be extended, it was nothing just a small matter but still these attempts were made to prevent me from becoming just a wakil
Q: Do you think there will be outright vote buying?
Dr M : There is that possibility. I was told in the by election that thing happened.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
I saw a good bargain today
Today, I went to Prima Saujana and saw a good property. The developer is Tanming Bhd. They are selling double storey link house with a land length of 125 feet with width of 20 feet. I am very impress with the price. The selling price range from RM 272k to RM 292k. Furthermore, the land is located on higher ground about 10 feet higher. The property is just completed with CF. I will check it out with some friends for any setbacks on the property.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Pak Lah
Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi made a plea to the person who kidnap Sharlinie urging him to free the child.
"Those who did this are cruel. I hope those responsible will realize how angry the public is," Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi told reporters yesterday at the Family Day for staff of the Prime Minister's Office at Seri Perdana, his official residence.
"They must repent and be brave enough to return Sharlinie."
We Malaysians are glad that the Prime Minister had come out in the open to call on the criminals to repent and be brave. Kidnapping is not our culture, and the kidnappers must uphold his integrity and the rule of natural justice. All Malaysian criminals must be brave and courageous. They must go to the police station to surrender themselves and not wait for the police to hunt them down. We do not have enough police personnels to do such work and it is very tough job to hunt them down. So if the criminals will cooperate with the police, it will make our nation more peaceful and we will then be able to reduce the crime rates.
For those criminals who are prepared to accept our Prime Minister's advice, the police may be willing to consider treating them better when they are in lockup and the public prosecutor may even consider to charged them for a slightly (very very slight) lesser crime and may even ask the judge to be lenient towards them. That way, it's win-win and the criminals may even be bestowed some titles, like Datut, Pingat Jasa Berani, Pingat Jasa Rakyat, or Pingat Jasa Barisan Rempit.
It was a great and brave call from the Prime Minister. No PM in the past had dared to plead to the criminals asking them to be brave and courageous in repenting and self-surrender. This shows how brave our PM is. This shows how effective Barisan Nasional solve the rising crime problems. Now, criminals can come forward and surrender themselves and this save the police and the nation a lot of time and expenses.
UMNO Putera Chairman Datuk Azeez had assembled a large group of Mat Rempit to relieve the police of the search effort. The response from the Mat Rempit was great. So, if you hear motorcycles racing around town and cities, do not fear as they are doing a great service for the nation. They are speedily searching for the little girl and they had to do it quick and fast; so they must speed and run around town in all directions, in desperation, to prove they are putting in their best efforts without being paid.
Pak Lah also expressed his concern about similar cases involving young children. He advised parents to keep a close watch on their children.
"Parents must take care of their children. Don't let them go out alone in the evenings. There's no need to ask them to go alone to the shops to buy things.
"If they must go, get an older sibling to accompany them or the parents themselves should go with them.
"Parents should hold their children's hands. Don't let them wander off alone. If not, all sorts of things can happen."
So, parents, please hold your child's hand. Don't let them go out. Don't let them meet kidnappers, rapists and murderers. Teach them how to recognize those criminals. If you don't know how, asked the PM and the police; they are the experts.
"Those who did this are cruel. I hope those responsible will realize how angry the public is," Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi told reporters yesterday at the Family Day for staff of the Prime Minister's Office at Seri Perdana, his official residence.
"They must repent and be brave enough to return Sharlinie."
We Malaysians are glad that the Prime Minister had come out in the open to call on the criminals to repent and be brave. Kidnapping is not our culture, and the kidnappers must uphold his integrity and the rule of natural justice. All Malaysian criminals must be brave and courageous. They must go to the police station to surrender themselves and not wait for the police to hunt them down. We do not have enough police personnels to do such work and it is very tough job to hunt them down. So if the criminals will cooperate with the police, it will make our nation more peaceful and we will then be able to reduce the crime rates.
For those criminals who are prepared to accept our Prime Minister's advice, the police may be willing to consider treating them better when they are in lockup and the public prosecutor may even consider to charged them for a slightly (very very slight) lesser crime and may even ask the judge to be lenient towards them. That way, it's win-win and the criminals may even be bestowed some titles, like Datut, Pingat Jasa Berani, Pingat Jasa Rakyat, or Pingat Jasa Barisan Rempit.
It was a great and brave call from the Prime Minister. No PM in the past had dared to plead to the criminals asking them to be brave and courageous in repenting and self-surrender. This shows how brave our PM is. This shows how effective Barisan Nasional solve the rising crime problems. Now, criminals can come forward and surrender themselves and this save the police and the nation a lot of time and expenses.
UMNO Putera Chairman Datuk Azeez had assembled a large group of Mat Rempit to relieve the police of the search effort. The response from the Mat Rempit was great. So, if you hear motorcycles racing around town and cities, do not fear as they are doing a great service for the nation. They are speedily searching for the little girl and they had to do it quick and fast; so they must speed and run around town in all directions, in desperation, to prove they are putting in their best efforts without being paid.
Pak Lah also expressed his concern about similar cases involving young children. He advised parents to keep a close watch on their children.
"Parents must take care of their children. Don't let them go out alone in the evenings. There's no need to ask them to go alone to the shops to buy things.
"If they must go, get an older sibling to accompany them or the parents themselves should go with them.
"Parents should hold their children's hands. Don't let them wander off alone. If not, all sorts of things can happen."
So, parents, please hold your child's hand. Don't let them go out. Don't let them meet kidnappers, rapists and murderers. Teach them how to recognize those criminals. If you don't know how, asked the PM and the police; they are the experts.
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